Operation Absolute Resolve: The US Plan for Venezuela (2026)

It is late 2026. The global energy landscape has fractured. The Middle East is gridlocked by regional conflict, forcing oil prices to hover near historic highs. Shipping lanes through the Red Sea remain perilous, and the “just-in-time” energy supply chains that the world relied on for decades are breaking down. In Washington, a quiet but decisive realization has taken hold: the United States can no longer afford the chaos in its own backyard.

For years, military analysts and think tanks whispered about the possibility of intervention, often dismissing it as a relic of the Cold War. But in the harsh light of the current resource scarcity, this potential mission has shifted from a “neocon fantasy” to a strategic necessity. A new phrase is circulating in the Pentagon and serious policy circles: Operation Absolute Resolve.

As we detailed in the “Resource War” section of our New Global Order 2026 report, the United States is aggressively moving to secure short supply chains. The era of relying on unstable partners across the ocean is ending.

The hypothetical scenario, known as Operation Absolute Resolve, represents a fundamental shift in American foreign policy. It is not just about politics or ideology; it is about physics and math. The Western Hemisphere cannot be secure and the US economy cannot stabilize while a hostile power sits on the world’s largest oil reserves just a three-hour flight from Miami.

1. The Strategic Logic: The Return of the Monroe Doctrine

To understand why Operation Absolute Resolve is being discussed with such seriousness, we must look at the historical framework of US defense: the Monroe Doctrine. In 1823, President James Monroe declared that the Western Hemisphere was off-limits to European colonization. For two centuries, this was the bedrock of American security.

However, by the mid-2020s, that doctrine appeared dead. Russia had begun flying nuclear-capable Tu-160 “Blackjack” bombers to Caracas for “training exercises.” China had invested billions into dual-use infrastructure projects, effectively establishing listening posts capable of monitoring US naval traffic in the Caribbean.

The “Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier” Threat

In the polarized world of 2026, Washington views these developments as an existential threat. A Chinese-aligned Venezuela is no longer just a diplomatic nuisance; it is an “Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier” parked on America’s southern flank.

The strategic logic behind Operation Absolute Resolve is the restoration of the Monroe Doctrine for the 21st century. Defense planners argue that the US Navy can control the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, but it cannot tolerate a hostile missile platform capable of striking the US Gulf Coast infrastructure. The mission profile of this operation is framed not as 19th-century imperialism, but as necessary “Hemispheric Defense” against Great Power competition.

2. The Prize: Heavy Crude and the Refinery Mismatch

While national security provides the moral justification, energy reality provides the economic engine. It is a fact that often surprises laymen: Venezuela holds approximately 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves more than Saudi Arabia (267 billion).

But it isn’t just about the amount of oil; it is about the type of oil.

Why US Refineries Need Venezuelan Oil

The US Shale Revolution in the Permian Basin produces “Light Sweet Crude.” However, the massive refinery complex along the US Gulf Coast (Texas and Louisiana) was built decades ago specifically to process “Heavy Sour Crude.”

For years, US refineries have had to import heavy crude from Russia or the Middle East to blend with domestic shale oil. In a world where Russian supplies are sanctioned and Middle Eastern supplies are at risk, the heavy crude sitting in Venezuela becomes the only viable substitute.

In the context of Operation Absolute Resolve, leaving 300 billion barrels of this critical resource rotting under a sanctioned, incompetent regime is seen as an economic crime. The unspoken economic goal of the operation would be “Energy Rehabilitation.” This involves bringing in American giants like Chevron, Halliburton, and ExxonMobil to repair the crumbling infrastructure, pump 5 million barrels a day, and stabilize global inflation.

3. The Trigger: The Essequibo “Red Line”

Every major conflict requires a spark a “Casus Belli” that justifies military action to the international community. For Operation Absolute Resolve, that spark is the Essequibo Dispute.

For decades, Venezuela has claimed sovereignty over the Essequibo region, a jungle territory that makes up two-thirds of the neighboring country of Guyana. This dispute was largely dormant until ExxonMobil discovered massive offshore oil deposits in Guyana’s waters, turning the small nation into the fastest-growing economy on Earth.

The 2026 Crisis Point

In our scenario, a desperate Venezuelan regime, facing total economic collapse at home, moves to annex Essequibo to seize its oil wealth and distract its population with nationalist fervor.

This is the “Red Line” for Operation Absolute Resolve.

1. Treaty Obligations: The US has deepened defense ties with Guyana to protect the Caribbean trade routes.

2. Corporate Defense: An attack on Guyana is a direct kinetic attack on US corporate assets (ExxonMobil platforms).

If Venezuelan troops cross the jungle border, the plan shifts from theory to action. The US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) would deploy assets under the banner of Operation Absolute Resolve to “Protect the Sovereignty of Guyana.” This provides the crucial international legal cover needed to launch a broader intervention without appearing as the aggressor.

4. What the Mission Looks Like: A 21st Century Quarantine

If executed, Operation Absolute Resolve will not look like the invasion of Iraq. There will be no columns of tanks rolling across the border to occupy cities. Modern warfare has evolved, and the US has no desire for a prolonged urban insurgency in Caracas.

Instead, military strategists predict a high-tech “Quarantine” model, similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis but with 2026 technology.

Phase 1: The Naval Blockade

The first step would be total maritime dominance. US Navy destroyers would patrol the Venezuelan coast, physically cutting off oil exports to China and preventing Iranian weapons shipments from docking. This strangles the regime’s cash flow instantly.

Phase 2: Air Superiority & Cyber Shock

Operation Absolute Resolve would rely heavily on “stand-off” capabilities.

• Cyber Warfare: US Cyber Command would likely target the Guri Dam’s electrical grid, shutting down power to military command centers while leaving civilian infrastructure largely intact.

• Air Control: The objective would be to ground the Venezuelan Air Force (which operates Russian Sukhoi jets). By establishing a No-Fly Zone, the US ensures the regime cannot threaten Guyana or US naval assets.

Phase 3: The “Managed Transition”

The endgame is political, not military. The goal of Operation Absolute Resolve is to fracture the loyalty of the Venezuelan military generals. By cutting off their drug-trafficking revenue and offering amnesty, the US aims to force a coup that installs a transitional government friendly to the West.

5. The Morning After: Rebuilding PDVSA

The success of Operation Absolute Resolve would not be measured by military victory, but by how quickly oil production can be restored. This is the “Reconstruction Phase.”

Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, is currently a shell of its former self. Pipelines are rusted, and skilled engineers have fled the country. The US plan involves a “Marshall Plan for Energy.”

• Lifting Sanctions: Immediately upon regime change, all US sanctions would be lifted.

• Direct Investment: Billions in private capital would flow into the Orinoco Belt to upgrade upgraders and refineries.

• Debt Restructuring: The US would likely lead an IMF effort to restructure Venezuela’s massive debt, effectively buying the country’s loyalty for the next generation.

This phase is critical. Without rapid economic improvement for the Venezuelan people, any new government would fail.

Conclusion: The Inevitability of Friction

The idea of Operation Absolute Resolve is frightening. It carries the risk of regional destabilization and asymmetric retaliation. However, it is a scenario that every serious geopolitical analyst is watching in 2026 because the status quo is unsustainable.

The United States is in a race for resources. It cannot compete with China globally if it does not control its own hemisphere. Whether it happens through a quiet diplomatic coup or the full kinetic force of this intervention, Venezuela is destined to return to the Western fold. The gravity of its oil wealth is simply too strong to resist.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Is Operation Absolute Resolve an official US plan?
A: No. Operation Absolute Resolve is a scenario name used by geopolitical analysts and think tanks to describe a potential intervention. While the Pentagon maintains contingency plans for all scenarios, there is no public declaration of this specific operation.

Q2: Would Russia or China fight back militarily?
A: It is highly unlikely. While they would condemn Operation Absolute Resolve diplomatically and perhaps launch cyber-attacks, neither power has the naval logistics to fight a war against the US in the Caribbean Sea.

Q3: How does this affect global oil prices?
A: In the short term, the launch of Operation Absolute Resolve would likely spike gas prices due to fear and uncertainty. However, the long-term strategic goal is to lower prices significantly by adding 3-5 million barrels of Venezuelan crude to the global market.

Q4: Why is Guyana so important to this scenario?
A: Guyana provides the “moral high ground.” Launching Operation Absolute Resolve purely for oil looks like theft; launching it to defend a small democratic ally (Guyana) from invasion provides international legitimacy and UN support.

Q5: When could this happen?
A: Analysts predict that if the Essequibo crisis escalates or if the Middle East supply chain collapses completely, Operation Absolute Resolve could become a reality in late 2026.

Disclaimer

The information provided in this article is based on a specific analysis of geopolitical events, military contingency planning, and economic trends projected for 2026. Operation Absolute Resolve is a hypothetical scenario used for analysis and educational purposes. This content should not be construed as political or investment advice. Geopolitics is rapidly evolving; readers are encouraged to verify facts with multiple news sources.

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